Thinking in Bets

by Annie Duke

A former World Series of Poker champion explains why smart people make bad decisions — and how to think probabilistically instead. Directly applicable to investing, financial planning, and any high-stakes decision.

Key Takeaways

→Separate decision quality from outcome quality — they're not the same
→Resulting: judging a decision by its outcome is a cognitive trap
→Think in probabilities, not certainties
→Seek out people who will tell you you're wrong
→Premortem: imagine failure before it happens to make better decisions