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Thinking in Bets
by Annie Duke
A former World Series of Poker champion explains why smart people make bad decisions — and how to think probabilistically instead. Directly applicable to investing, financial planning, and any high-stakes decision.
Key takeaways
- ★Separate decision quality from outcome quality — they're not the same
- ★Resulting: judging a decision by its outcome is a cognitive trap
- ★Think in probabilities, not certainties
- ★Seek out people who will tell you you're wrong
- ★Premortem: imagine failure before it happens to make better decisions